On the heels of Janelle Stelson’s win on Tuesday as the Democratic challenger to GOP U.S. Rep. Scott Perry, a well-known political forecaster has slightly downgraded Perry’s chances of victory in November.
Kyle Kondik with University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball said Wednesday he was moving the 10th Congressional District race from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican” after Stelson’s victory in a crowded Democratic primary.
Another respected election analysis outlet, the Cook Political Report, has had the district race at “leans Republican” since December when it downgraded the rating from “likely Republican.”
Kondik noted that Perry’s “association with Trump’s effort to overturn the 2020 election and hard-right voting record are not necessarily a great fit for a GOP-leaning but blue-trending district centered on the Harrisburg area.”
Democratic 10th Congressional District candidate Janelle Stelson gives a victory speech at her election watch party in Hershey on April 23, 2024. Jimmie Brown. jbrown@pennlive.comJimmie Brown Jr.
Kondik also cited Perry’s votes last weekend in which he was the only Pennsylvania House member to vote against aid to both Ukraine and Israel.
While Perry has survived several Democratic challengers, Gov. Josh Shapiro won the district 55% to 43% over far-right state Sen. Doug Mastriano in the 2022 gubernatorial race, giving Democrats hope that a well-funded candidate could unseat Perry.
In 2020, former President Donald Trump won the district by 4 percentage points, Kondik said, and failed GOP U.S. Senate candidate Mehmet Oz won it by a single point in 2022.
“While she does not live in the district, Stelson is likely well-known across it thanks to a long career as a local television news anchor,” Kodik said.
Kodik noted that the Democratic House Majority PAC has reserved $2.4 million in the Harrisburg market for campaign ads.
“Perry probably will still be OK thanks to being in a Trump district, but it does seem more competitive now,” Kondik wrote in explaining the ratings shift.
