Topline
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., have emerged as the bookmakers’ favorites to become Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate, hours after North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper withdrew as a contender.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro speaks during a rally in support of Harris for President in his home … [+]
Key Facts
Bettors predict both Kelly and Shapiro have roughly a 35% chance of becoming the Democratic vice presidential candidate, according to crypto-based betting platform Polymarket.
However, the betting odds in favor of Kelly have risen by roughly four points in the past 24 hours while Shapiro’s—who stumped for Harris at a campaign event in Pennsylvania on Monday—have dropped by five points.
Bookmakers on the New Zealand-based PredictIt are giving Kelly slightly better odds of 38 cents per share (equating to a 38% chance) compared to 34 cents for Shapiro.
Bettors last week saw Cooper as one of the top contenders and briefly gave him the strongest odds, but his numbers dropped in the past few days even before he dropped out.
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz now has the third-best odds in both markets, followed by Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg in fourth.
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News Peg
Trump remains the bookmakers’ favorite to win the presidential election in November, but Harris has narrowed his lead in recent days. According to the tracker Election Betting Odds, which aggregates data from three different betting markets, Trump has a 56.9% chance of winning in November compared to Harris’ 40.2%. However, there is a major divergence between bettors on Polymarket and PredictIt. Bookmakers on Polymarket, which is crypto-based and accepts bets from across the world, are giving Trump a 59% chance compared to 39% for Harris. On PredictIt, which only accepts bets from U.S. nationals, Harris and Trump are nearly even, with the former president only slightly ahead.
Tangent
In May, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) proposed a law to ban all election-related betting in the U.S. derivatives market. The federal agency’s proposal came after it was sued by PredictIt while trying to shut down the platform from taking bets on the presidential race—after previously allowing it.
Further Reading
Harris Rises In Election Betting Markets—But Bookmakers Still Favor Trump (Forbes)
