Are we running out of new pop stars?
That’s the thought that came to mind when I realized that, for the first time ever, the 2025 lineup for the Grammy for Best Pop Vocal Album might end up being a set of five previous category winners. Indeed, the highly competitive race for the award, which already has at least three locks and a couple other high-profile contenders, could be a question of who wins their second (or third) trophy in the category — although there are a few limited exceptions of potential fresh faces that could shake up the race.
Right now the race seems to be between three albums. Perhaps the frontrunner is Ariana Grande’s “Eternal Sunshine,” for a couple of important reasons. The album has two big hits this year, including “We Can’t Be Friends (Wait for Your Love),” which seems to be well on its way to general field nominations. Grande also has a strong narrative. First, “Eternal Sunshine” is one of her most acclaimed albums, scoring 84 on Metacritic (just two points behind her most acclaimed, “Thank U, Next”), and she’s been a hitmaker for so long that a second award (following her victory for “Sweetener”) could be seen as overdue, unlike some of her competition. There’s also a comeback narrative for Grande after she faced hard public scrutiny and fell out of grace with some of the public over rumors that she was a homewrecker. That said, while this era has been stable on the charts, it hasn’t really been dominant. Perhaps if she can notch a couple of pop radio number-ones, she’ll become more of a certain frontrunner.
Then again, Grande has to face two powerful Grammy favorites. The first is Taylor Swift (“The Tortured Poets Department”), who might not be in it to win it this time because she just won last year. Back-to-back victories in the category is an unprecedented feat; voters might not even care that Swift will inevitably outsell everyone in her category. Unless this new album achieves a “1989” level of pop radio domination, voters may opt out of a Swift win here … but we never know for sure with her.
Perhaps more competitive will be Billie Eilish (“Hit Me Hard and Soft“), who is looking for her second win, just like Grande (she previously won for her debut studio album “When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?”). Eilish’s disadvantage is that she’s newer, and voters might prefer to give a more established artist their second win instead. Also not in her favor is that her last album, “Happier Than Ever,” underperformed, losing all seven of its nominations. And as much as Eilish is a Grammy favorite, pop voters seem to be less thrilled about her. Out of her many general field wins, only one has been supported by a pop victory (“When We All Fall Asleep” winning Best Pop Vocal Album and Album of the Year). That said, Eilish is more revered than Grande at the Grammys, and she might deliver an album that’s undeniable.
Grande, Eilish, and Swift are locked, so who will be there to take the remaining spots? Dua Lipa might be next in line with her upcoming third project, “Radical Optimism.” This album doesn’t seem to be generating the same level of pre-release buzz as her last one, the category-winning “Future Nostalgia.” However, it still has the pop radio hit “Houdini” and an international hit with “Training Season.” Also, Lipa might yet give us a bona fide smash hit from the album that will elevate her chances even more; you never know. Regardless, it’s rare for voters to simply abandon an artist like that, so a nomination for Lipa is possible.
That fifth slot is the trickiest one. A couple more previous category winners are in contention. Ed Sheeran was nominated last year for “Subtract,” so perhaps there’s space for “Autumn Variations,” his newest and most lowkey album yet. But there’s also Justin Timberlake, who can get in with his newest, “Everything I Thought It Was.” Timberlake’s advantage over Sheeran is that his album does have a hit of sorts: “Selfish.” The track wasn’t huge by any means, but so far it has reached number-two on the Adult Pop Airplay chart and number-nine on the regular Pop Airplay chart. Plus, his album debuted at number-four on the Billboard 200 with 67,000 equivalent album units, better than Sheeran’s 62,000 units in its first week.
What about the new blood? A couple new artists might beat the veterans to that fifth spot. Tate McRae seems like the most likely with her hit album “Think Later.” It’s not necessarily as popular as previous debuts from breakouts like Olivia Rodrigo or Eilish, but it still did well on the charts. It debuted with 66,000 units at number-four on the Billboard 200. But most importantly, it features two big pop hits: the inescapable “Greedy,” which topped pop radio, and “Exes,” which peaked in the top 10 of the Pop Airplay chart.
McRae’s competitor for that debutante spot is Benson Boone, who has been famous on the internet for a while but just recently notched his first real crossover hit with “Beautiful Things,” which has peaked at number-two on the Hot 100. While “Beautiful Things” is his main asset right now, his album “Fireworks and Rollerblades” also features the budding “Slow It Down,” which might end up also being a big hit for him. There’s still time for either artist to notch a new hit before voting takes place this fall.
Regardless of the outcome, hurray for pop music! What seemed to be quite a dead category in the past few years seems to be genuinely competitive for the first time in a while. And who knows which new pop star or returning champ might come to our radios in the remaining months before the eligibility deadline of August 31.
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