Outwardly, this year’s presidential race has been characterized by surprises, volatility, and ongoing threats of violence, with a second assassination attempt against Donald Trump apparently foiled over the weekend in the bushes of his West Palm Beach golf club. We’ve seen one Democratic nominee, Joe Biden, drop out in favor of another, Kamala Harris. We’ve seen public attention splinter as trust in media wanes, accompanied by a downward slide in TV ratings and the definitive arrival of social media platforms as the primary brokers of news. We’ve been talking about coconuts, TikTok, communists, Hulk Hogan, childless cat ladies, brain worms, border security, bacon, couch-fucking, Taylor Swift, racist conspiracy theories about Haitian immigrants eating dogs and cats. This race is bananas, right?!
In a more fundamental way, though, the defining characteristic of the 2024 presidential race has been its overall stability. Before Biden dropped out this summer, the race had looked the same all year: Trump held a steady if narrow lead in national polls and most battleground state surveys. Then came Biden’s atrocious debate performance in June, the only event this cycle that truly jolted the polls. His numbers collapsed, which prompted the arrival of Harris, who immediately shot up in the polls and has led Trump by about 2-3 points in national surveys ever since, with a steady but marginal lead in most of the swing states as well.
