As the 2024 presidential general-election phase takes shape in earnest, Republicans are desperate to convince Americans that they were better off four years ago. The GOP line is bizarre and demonstrably ridiculous, but the party nevertheless sees it as a critical element of their electoral plan.
To that end, after President Joe Biden recently claimed that crime rates have fallen during his White House tenure, the Republican National Committee pushed back in highly unfortunate ways. But as the FBI reminded the public this week, the Democratic incumbent’s boasts are rooted in fact. NBC News reported:
New FBI data confirms previous indications that crime in the U.S. declined significantly in 2023, continuing a post-pandemic trend and belying widespread perceptions that crime is rising. The new fourth-quarter numbers showed a 13% decline in murder in 2023 from 2022, a 6% decline in reported violent crime and a 4% decline in reported property crime.
To be sure, the news comes with some caveats — the bureau won’t release its most comprehensive look at 2023 crime data until October — but for those eager to see improvements, the available information is worth celebrating.
Jeff Asher, a former CIA analyst who now studies crime trends, told NBC News that the latest reporting from the FBI “suggests that when we get the final data in October, we will have seen likely the largest one-year decline in murder that has ever been recorded.”
The White House not only touted the news, it also framed the new data in a not-so-subtle election-year context.
“Across America, families want the same thing: the freedom to feel safe in their community. To know their kids are secure. My administration is making it a reality,” Biden said in a written statement. “This week, the FBI released data showing that crime declined across nearly every category in 2023. Last year, we also had one of the lowest rates of all violent crime in more than 50 years and the murder rate saw the sharpest decrease in history. That’s good news for the American people.
“In 2020, before I took office, the prior administration oversaw the largest increase in murders ever recorded. My administration got to work on day one to fix that. Thanks to the American Rescue Plan, which every Republican in Congress voted against, we made the largest-ever federal investment in fighting and preventing crime at any time in our history. That enabled cities and states to invest $15 billion in public safety. This record investment in crime reduction — in community violence intervention, mental health and additional officers — is delivering results.”
Late last year, Donald Trump asked someone to name “one thing“ that’s improved during Biden’s tenure. As it turns out, the list is rather long, but as the FBI has reminded us, crime rates are among the most notable areas of improvement.
To be sure, I’m mindful of the fact there’s a gap between public perceptions about crime and actual evidence — driven in part by conservative media outlets and their partisan motivations to scare the bejesus out of as many voters as possible.
But to the extent that reality still has any meaning in the public discourse, Biden and his team have an encouraging story to tell.
